Peter Newman
Siemens Corporation

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For the last fifty years, a growing level of automobile dependence has been assumed to be an intrinsic feature of the modern world. Deteriorating air quality and growing congestion, however, have led city governments everywhere to question this paradigm. Policy makers in many regions are thus attempting to reduce automobile use by requiring motorists to pay a larger percentage of the costs related to personal transportation. Large increases in fuel costs or parking charges are, however, not easily introduced, and, in any case, alternatives need to be offered if motorists are to be persuaded to leave their cars at home.

Public Transit-Oriented Planning

Despite widespread cynicism regarding the possibility of limiting automobile usage, there is a growing awareness of the need for public transit-oriented planning and of its economic advantages.

For instance, studies have shown that investments in public transit:

• are economically twice as beneficial to cities as are investments in roads and highways (Aschauer and Campbell, 1991),
  
  
• can enable cities to use market forces to build up densities near stations where most services are located, thus creating more efficient sub-centers and minimizing urban sprawl
  (Cervero, 1992),
  
  
• reduce infrastructure costs by largely limiting development to transit corridor areas
  (Vuchic, 1981).
  
  

But perhaps the most significant appeal of transit-oriented planning is that it offers genuine, high-profile solutions to the environmental and social dilemmas facing automobile dependent cities. This is not only because electric rail systems can reduce energy demand, emissions and noise dramatically, but because they can potentially free up large areas. A double-track light rail system, for instance, uses 50 times less urban space than the highways and related parking required to accommodate an equal number of people traveling by car.

Today, cities around the world are pedestrianizing their centers and building new walking-scale urban villages. But the basis of this approach must be a good transit system. Recognizing this, the OECD, the ECE, the UN, and the World Bank have begun to stress the importance of public transportation systems and their funding (Kreimer et al, 1993; World Bank, 1994), particularly in developing countries.

Patterns of Automobile Use

Our book, "Cities and Automobile Dependence" (Newman and Kenworthy, 1989) summarizes ten years of study on the extent of automobile use in 32 major cities around the world. Automobile use (measured in terms of fuel consumption) is highest in U.S. cities, followed by Australian, European, and finally Asian Cities.

Logically speaking, cities with the highest per capita vehicle use are those that should be doing the most to extend their transit systems. Instead, the opposite seems to have occurred. During the past decade cities that already had well developed transit systems such as Zurich and Singapore, have substantially improved their public transit ridership while limiting car use growth. In fact, these two cities have been so successful in attracting passengers that their increase in transit use roughly approximated the total level of per capita transit use found in New York–the U.S. city with the highest per capita transit use.

On the other hand, Los Angeles continued to grow in terms of car use and decline in public transit use. Reflecting this trend, its increase in car use in the 1980s was equal to the total level of per capita car use in London or Paris in 1980. Today, Los Angeles is pumping billions of dollars into public transit, but the question is whether it will be possible to turn around a city so firmly dependent on the automobile. Recent studies that show a 15 year decline in the number of middle-class professionals living in Los Angeles (Gobor, 1993) may suggest a slide that could be very difficult to reverse.

In my opinion, the first decades of the 21st century may well see a decline in automobile-dependent cities that follows the path experienced by many industrial cities in the last half of this century. People are not going to want to live, work or invest in cities that are polluted, congested and characterized by parking lots rather than parks.

Transit-oriented planning offers a sustainable solution by delivering a simultaneous improvement in the environment and the economy of a city. Post-industrial cities with their emphasis on services and information require sustainable solutions to automobile dependence.

Although automobile use increased uniformly in all major U.S. cities over the last ten years, they have nevertheless been a number of transit success stories, most notably in Boston, Washington, New York, Portland, and San Diego. The San Diego story shows a city that had reached almost rock bottom in its transit service yet managed a remarkable turn-around thanks to the implementation of a cost-effective light rail system. Prior to the implementation of the system, bus service had been unable to compete with the automobile. Data show, however, that between 1982 and 1992 the light rail system more than doubled the number of passengers it carried per day. Although use of the city's transit system is still low by international comparisons, figures show a very strong upward trend from an average of 12 trips per capita per year to 30 in 1994.

Although many U.S. cities are making headlines thanks to new and/or expanded public transit systems, the most substantial increases in public transit patronage have been registered in Europe and Asia. Let's take a look at a handful of outstanding examples.

Success in Singapore and Hong Kong

Both Singapore and Hong Kong have remarkably successful transit systems and very low per capita automobile usage. To achieve this, these metropolises have made city-wide planning a very high priority (Wang and Yeh, 1993). Both transit systems are based on a combination of rapid and comfortable electric rail service and flexible, local minibus service. These are supplemented by ample sidewalks and bicycle paths. Central to the success of this model is high-density urban development that is closely integrated around each transit system.

The story of Singapore's transit system is not without its battles. The advice from the World Bank and some consultants was that it would be wrong to invest in an expensive, high-profile, fixed rail system. All that was needed, they said, was to upgrade the city's bus service. However, convinced that buses alone would not offer a competitive alternative to the automobile and would not provide a real answer to the city's transit-oriented plan, Singapore chose to go ahead with an advanced rail system. Since then, the service has proven to be highly successful in both economic and environmental terms, and plans call for it to be expanded with cross links, some of which will be based on light rail technology, to sub-centers.

Thanks in large part to its public transit system, Singapore has become an increasingly attractive location, particularly when compared to other major Asian cities that have given priority to new roads and parking. Cities such as Bangkok, Jakarta and Manila now have huge traffic problems as well as associated environmental and social challenges. Many are now drawing up plans for transit systems to be financed with a mixture of private and public sources. Such systems would certainly be spectacularly successful in improving these cities if based on the models provided by Singapore and Hong Kong (Poboon et al, 1994 and Kenworthy et al, 1994).

Curitiba: Express Lane to Improve Urban Quality

The problem for most cities, whether they are in developing countries or not, is how to minimize the capital cost of transit while investing enough to develop a viable alternative to the automobile. Located just south of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Curitiba is a city that has managed to do just that.

Curitiba's public transport system began 20 years ago with the use of express buses on exclusive rights-of-way radiating out from the city center. These proved much cheaper and less disruptive to install than conventional metro or light rail lines. Over the years, these axes became increasingly important as higher density commercial and residential complexes were encouraged to develop in their proximity. In all, some 17,000 lower-income families have relocated to these areas. The express buses running along these axes are served by inter-district buses and conventional feeder buses with connections between different buses organized through a series of bus terminals.

Passengers transferring from feeder to express buses or vice versa use stations equipped with platforms that are the same height as the bus floors. This cuts boarding and exit times to such an extent that three times as many passengers per hour can be transported compared to a conventional bus operating on a normal street. Thanks to these and other measures, Curitiba's public transportation system is now used by over 1.3 million passengers each day. Considering that 28% of express bus users previously traveled by car, the city's total fuel consumption has been cut by approximately one quarter, and it now enjoys one of the lowest levels of ambient air pollution in Brazil (Rabinovitch, 1993). Long-range plans call for the city to develop rail services along the main axes used by its buses.

Tunis: Fast Track to a Better Environment

Back in 1975 there were only 130,000 cars in all of Tunisia, but by 1985, there were 165,000 in Tunis alone. In four years, from 1981 to 1985, the number of auto trips within the capital city skyrocketed from 400,000 to 700,000. Alarmed by this unsustainable trend, the city invested in an extensive light rail system that can carry up to 20,000 people per hour in each direction. The most modern rapid transit system in Africa, and the first such system in the Arab world, Tunis' Metro Leger has led to real improvements in the quality of the central business district. Shortly after the system entered service, for instance, the city opened up a pedestrian-only zone that encompasses up to 44% of the downtown area. And during Metro Leger's first year of operation, automobile trips were reduced by 35,000 per day, resulting in a dramatic improvement in the city's air quality.

Zurich, Freiburg and Sheffield, - European Public Transit at its Best

Zurich and Freiburg are examples of European cities that have made concerted efforts to contain automobile use while improving the quality of life of their citizens through farsighted investments in public transportation systems. However, many others, particularly Copenhagen, Stockholm, Munich and Amsterdam, could almost as easily fit this category.

As noted earlier, Zurich has enjoyed a spectacular increase in its public transit patronage. This has occurred despite substantial growth in per capita incomes. How was this accomplished? In the 70s Zurich made a historic decision to expand its old tram system and upgrade service so that the trams would run at six-minute intervals and would have right-of-way at traffic lights.

As the trams became fashionable, public attention was directed to other amenities such as pedestrian malls and outdoor cafes, which were allowed in many cases to replace parking lots. Like most cities, Freiburg, Germany has experienced a tremendous increase in car ownership. Pucher and Clorer (1992) provide data that show how Freiburg's car ownership has risen from 113 per 1000 people in 1960 to 422 per 1000 in 1990, only a little under the average for the Zurich agglomeration, and only 12% less than the national average for western Germany (481 per 1000). Yet, despite this growth in the availability of automobiles, car use has virtually remained constant since 1976. Instead, the number of people using the city's public transit system has increased by 53%, and bicycle trips rose 96% between 1976 and 1991. Meanwhile, the automobile's share of non-pedestrian trips in Freiburg fell from 60% in 1976 to 47% in 1991.

Pucher and Clorer (1992) attribute Freiburg's success to a combination of transportation and physical planning strategies: "First, it has sharply restricted auto use in the city. Second it has provided affordable, convenient, and safe alternatives to auto use. Finally, it has strictly regulated development to ensure a compact land use pattern that is conducive to public transport, bicycling and walking." Restricted auto use has been achieved through mechanisms such as pedestrianization of the city center, a 30 km/h speed limit in all residential areas, and higher priced parking. Freiburg's improvements in the public transit realm have focused on extending and upgrading its light rail system. Buses are used as feeders to the system. Land use regulations are similar to those in effect in many other parts of Europe and have involved limiting the over all amount of land available to development and strictly zoning land for agriculture, forests, wildlife reserves or undeveloped open space.

Sheffield is a relative newcomer to Europe's long list of trans-oriented cities. Like many other British and American cities, it dismantled its streetcar system in the 1960s. But by 1990, 75% of all work-related trips were being made by automobile and congestion was choking the city. Today, two light rail lines comprising nearly 29 kilometers of track are in operation. Early estimates indicate that the transit systemÕs 25 new ÒSupertramsÓ will reduce commuter traffic by up to 15%.

Toronto and Portland: North America Turns to the Tracks

Although North American cities have virtually grown up with the automobile, many are making concerted efforts to wean motorists away from their vehicles and attract them to public transit systems. Toronto, for instance, has pursued a policy of transit-oriented development for several decades, and is today the best North American example of this trend (Kenworthy and Newman 1994). Seventeen percent of travel in greater Toronto is based on public transport, and the corresponding figure for Metro Toronto is 21% and climbing. From 1960 to 1980 Toronto's public transit ridership grew by 48%, and per capita, residents of greater Toronto used public transit 210 times 1990–by far the highest figure in North America and some 36% higher than the next best city, New York.

Metropolitan Toronto, (population 2.3 million in 1991) has continued to grow in the past decades and its overall density increased by 8% between 1960 and 1980, particularly along its transit lines. What accounts for these achievements? Thirty years ago, a movement to stop the building of a major freeway proved to be a catalyst that began a whole public community-based move for a different kind of city. Once the freeway issue had defined the city's direction, residents voted to emphasize transit-oriented development. From roughly 1970 to 1990 the city changed dramatically from being predominantly car-based to being substantially based around a transit network. As a result, it has been able to revitalize its downtown and develop a series of transit-centered sub-cities. Toronto even built 20,000 dwellings from 1985 to 1988 in the city center and as Nowlan and Stewart (1992) have shown, this has reduced the morning peak by 100 cars for every 120 units built. Families now live in the city center in the European tradition, which of course does wonders for the vitality and safety of public spaces. Toronto's Mayor, Art Eggleton, summarized the process this way: "Good, efficient public transit and scarce, costly parking is a key to being a successful city...The other significant policy in Toronto was bringing people to live in the city center and sub-centers." (Eggleton, 1992).

Not unlike Toronto, Portland, Oregon went through a painful period of assessing its future during the 70s when the city was considering construction of a major urban expressway. When the community decided not to build the expressway but instead to go for a light rail system (MAX), most transport experts laughed. It is very hard to find any of those people today. The MAX is a transport success story. It enjoys double the patronage of the bus system it replaced and is heavily used during off-peak hours and particularly on weekends by families going into the city. Plans call for the system to be extended, with the first stage of this process now under way.

MAX has resulted in a number of important benefits for Portland. One is that the city center has come alive. Specifically, the local business community took the initiative to help re-pave city streets, install benches, flower planters, and other elements of good urban design. The result is that today the downtown area–one of the most attractive in North America–accounts for 30% of the city's total retailing, up from a mere 5% before MAX entered service. Rather than adding parking, housing units are proliferating, and a downtown freeway has been replaced by a riverfront park (Arrington, 1993).

The other spin-off is that the city has recognized that MAX provides an opportunity to formulate an integrated approach to land development. Accordingly, the city has pushed through a plan to curtail outer area growth and redirect it to transit stop areas (Arrington, 1993). The measure calls for 85% of all new growth to be within 5 minutes walk of a designated transit stop. A city cannot change overnight, and Portland's overall transit patronage is still low despite good results in the MAX corridor. But Portland has shown that public transit systems can help cities turn the corner toward a healthier urban environment.

Perth: A Hesitant Start in Australia

For over 50 years, new suburbs have been built in Australia at uniformly low densities of 10-12 people per hectare. And with only extremely inconvenient bus service and no rail service whatever, it is not surprising that the Australian suburban lifestyle rapidly became highly automobile dependent. Australian cities are second only to U.S. cities in their degree of automobile use (Newman and Kenworth, 1989). However, recent trends show a reduction in the rate of increase in car use in all Australian cities and renewed interest in public transit (Kenworthy and Newman, 1993). Today, 50% of all new urban development in Australia is in established areas, with growing demand for housing close to areas served by rail systems. This trend towards a more public transit-oriented urban lifestyle is now beginning to occur in some very car-dependent areas, such as Perth's northern suburbs. By the 1980's the Freeway serving this corridor was clogged at peak hours and the community was dissatisfied with the bus service. A strong political push for rail service resulted in the establishment of the Northern Suburbs Rapid Transit System (Newman 1992), a 33 km electric rail line with seven stations that are integrated with local bus service.

The new service has gone a long way toward debunking the standard predictions about not being able to get people out of their cars. In point of fact, the rail/bus combination has enjoyed a 40% increase in patronage as compared with bus-only service in the corridor, showing that people are willing to transfer if they can move to a superior form of service. Furthermore, surveys have shown that 25% of the patrons on the northern line gave up using their cars for commuting. And contrary to the dire predictions that the system would be a financial disaster, it was completed on-budget and on-time and is now almost breaking even in operating cost. In the process, it has won many awards for engineering and architecture and has spurred the growth of transit-oriented urban villages around its new rail stations. This process is slated to continue as the Australian federal government is funding $850 million worth of transit-oriented urban villages throughout the country as part of its "Better Cities" program.

Conclusions

Transit-oriented planning is now well established as a prescription for urban regeneration. Some of Asia's fastest growing cities are demonstrating how this can be done in spectacularly successful ways. There are some true success stories in Europe as well, as there are in North America and Australia, in spite of very heavy reliance on the automobile. All in all, sustainable and civilized cities characterized by low automobile dependence are clearly achievable, but only with a significant commitment to public transit and transit-based planning.

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